Catching a mirage: A case of achieving a sustainable peace under a ruling SPLM party in South Sudan

By Atok Dan

May 18, 2022

The ruling SPLM party in South Sudan under President Salva Kiir: a laboratory clone of Islamic National Salvation impedes achieving sustainable peace in the country. Juba, the political capital of the government of the world's youngest country, South Sudan, is no longer a place embellished with the euphoria of happiness we witnessed over a decade ago. Desperation and miseries are lesser descriptions of the place. Dilapidated streets are littered with countless street kids’ equal plastic bags thrown at will, little or nothing to tell of an oil-producing state. Debts, incentivized rebellions, and expenditures aren’t what a country less than two decades in statehood is proud of. 

With Salva Kiir, a former rebel commander at the helm of power continuing to sandwich presidential decrees at will, no doubt, a strong African autocrat is in his advanced stage of craftsmanship. The international community, the guarantors of the 2018 revitalization agreement of the resolution of the conflict in the Republic of South Sudan – R-ARCSS, are equally hypnotized by strategic mistakes, no doubt, the regime in Juba is fully immune against any pressure, regionally and internationally. Regional actors such as Uganda and Sudan aren’t trustworthy partners but are parasitically draining every little blood running to revitalize this fledgling and left-alone body called South Sudan. This makes the country a worthy donkey for President Museveni to ride. Ethiopia, which is ostensible, a key player in the region is as well bogged down in a similar conflict. Kenya, which is the only host where oil wealth stolen from South Sudan is kept, is left alone to play a solo game. China as the only close-to-heart benefactor or patron to Juba in the blood oil business has polluted environs in oil-producing areas, a horrendous reality whose outcomes are deformed births, stillbirths, bareness, and rise of cancerous ailments among both humans and domestic livestock. This is an added load to an environment already threatened by desertification and carefree deforestation.

The worse pending on the list of stresses, the regime has struck a crooked deal with Egypt to dredge lungs of the Sudd in the name of flood control, a deal if executed would quickly wither the world's largest wetland on the continent of Africa. There is no deal, but the Egyptian government compromised the entire system. The maladroitness of these leaders has blindfolded them to scope their mandate. A decision to dredge is a mandate an elected government can do, not a prerogative of those in power through violence.   

The South Sudan People’s Defense Force SSPDF, a mere name upgrade of the SPLA, the former Southern guerilla military wing of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement -SPLM, is now fully relegated in power preference. It is a worthless ragtag or loose tribal alliance, with no semblance of a national army. The regime in Juba relies heavily on the services of the national security service NSS, a brute prototype to that of the National Congress Party in Sudan. This bunch of ill-disciplined militias is what constitutes a national army of South Sudan. The peace agreement is stalled, aggregates of white army, a Nuer collection of forces which resisted against the Dinka dominated SPLA. Agwelek battalion, a Shilluk tribal force under another self-anointed Gen, Johnson Olony is awaiting reintegration into the SSPDF. There was also a Cobra battalion whose composition comprised the ethnic Murle tribe under David Yau Yau. This force, together with the Mathiang Anyoor, a Rek Dinka tribal militia, and Padang Dinka Abushok forces are part of the SSPDF force. Just a week ago, armed Dinka civilians in Warrab, the home of President Kiir, mowed down dozens of SSPDF intelligence officers. In the same Warrab state, machetes are held high in the air for slaughter between Twic and Ngok Dinka, communities intertwined by blood relations. The Murle tribe in Jonglei, the largest state in South Sudan, has recently launched a deadly raid on the Toposa people in Eastern Equatoria, killing over a hundred people. Disarmament has failed time and again. Armed civilians are technically in an arms race with organized forces.  

Gen Gatwic Dual, a Lou Nuer self-declared SPLA -IO head and currently stationed in a Shilluk village called Kitgwang on the north-south border initiated another piecemeal agreement with Gen. Akol Koor, head of the NSS. For no clear reasons, Gen. Gatwic can’t come to Juba despite assurance from his funder, the NSS. Such defiance also poses a threat to peace in this oil-rich state of the Upper Nile.

In Equatoria, a region that had some relative calm in the past has now modeled Gen. Thomas Cirilo’s rebellion, a quasi-tribal and a regional outfit. This is another hot blaze that continues to wreak havoc on the realization of peace in this war-ravaged country. Pastoralists of the Bor Dinka, a subtribe of the Dinka, have their feet printed in the region for chaotic stories. Armed pastoralists have proven a threat to host sedentary tribes in the region. Michael Makuei Lueth, a native of Bor Dinka and an outspoken spokesperson of the Juba, has been on record urging pastoralists from his constituency to vacate Equatoria. Minister Lueth has persistently been a vocal voice for his people and the government alike.

Catching a desert mirage and a prospect of a peaceful election in South Sudan.

The current coalition government would soon outlive its mandate. Conducting a peaceful election, let alone its credibility, within a stipulated time frame is another chase for a desert mirage. Voter registration, awareness, repatriation of refugees, and internally displaced persons, and creating a conducive environment besides internal border demarcation, are some of the gigantic challenges likely to derail the process. Tribes continue to dispute current lines. The AK-47 assault rifle remains a walking stick for civilians in the country. A disciplined force to disarm the population is nowhere, with what is there as tribal militias protecting tribes.

The ruling SPLM party under President Salva Kiir is calling for an urgent election, just a mandate renewal concert in the name of the election. The SPLM-IO, a political wing of the Sudan People's Liberation Army -In Opposition under first President Dr. Riek Machar, a native Nuer warlord, has just called a shot to boycott the process including participation in the current government. In the event of this scenario, a ground is set ready for another flare-up. The government under President Kiir, a Dinka chief in the outfit, has not had enough money to fund the peace process but there is enough to sponsor counter-tribal militias to frustrate its implementation.

IGAD, East Africa, and horn regional bodies are ever ill-prepared to exert meaningful pressure. The IGAD heads of state are all divided. With President Museveni of Uganda, the longest serving leader in the region, and a technical head coach of African dictators, a peaceful South Sudan is never the best night story this tired grandfather can share with grandchildren. Ethiopia, another instrumental key player, has its knees deep down in tribal conflict. The role of IGAD in the region thwarts every effort aimed at pressuring South Sudanese corrupt men. The United Nations arms embargo and sanctions cannot impact because Uganda continues to play the role of arms procurement officer for Juba. Corrupt officials sanctioned by the American government continue to crisscross the world using the passports of their wives or next of kin. No sanctions monitoring schemes to deter culprits.

With this convoluted nature of issues, Juba, in a practical sense, is a mile away from becoming a regional Kremlin with President Kiir as Putin’s prototype, and the Soviet-like kind of media propaganda, the victims are the poor South Sudanese. Since the world seems to license another human-made catastrophe in South Sudan under another man who plays part two role of Putin, America through USAID will not send Javelins or Stringers to South Sudan but bags of flour grains for humanitarian intervention. The processes of manufacturing more refugees in South Sudan have hit the ground for a journey.